Finans
September 2026 Annual Inflation Report: Turkey's CPI Falls From May Peak
This brief reviews Turkey's September 2026 annual inflation report, covering the disinflation process, the exchange rate, the interest rate environment and a worked example with the inflation calculator.
Editör Hesapyap.NET
~5 min read
Not investment advice.
September 2026 Annual Inflation Report: Turkey's CPI Falls From May Peak
Introduction
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), based on the Consumer Price Index (TP.TUFE1YI.T1), announced that annual inflation in September 2026 was 27.38%. The annual rate fell below the May peak (28.93%) and was set at the previous month's 27.95%. Across the full 2026 picture, inflation rose in the first half of the year and has been easing since June. The report is the latest in a series of monthly releases from the Turkish Statistical Institute, which publishes the Consumer Price Index on a regular schedule.
The annual inflation rate measures the change in the prices of private consumption over a year, expressed in percent. The September report documents the lowest reading since the May 2026 peak (28.93%). This does not mean the rate is close to the target; the level remains high.
The decline from the May 2026 peak corresponds to 1.55 percentage points. The August reading (27.95%) supports the view that the slowdown is a continuing trend rather than a single event.
1. Annual inflation: the September report
The annual inflation rate measures the change in the prices of private consumption over a year, expressed in percent. The September report documents the lowest reading since the May 2026 peak (28.93%). This does not mean the rate is close to the target; the level remains high.
The decline from the May 2026 peak corresponds to 1.55 percentage points. The August reading (27.95%) supports the view that the slowdown is a continuing trend rather than a single event.
2. Consumer Price Index: level and growth
Behind the annual rate, the general level of consumer prices also tells a story. The index stood at 4,632.89 in September 2025 and 5,901.26 in September 2026. In 2026, inflation remained elevated in the early months, then declined through summer and September. The growth between these values produces the 27.38% annual rate. The index level, a basket of consumer prices, tracks the general price development. In September 2026, the index stood above its 2025 level, reflecting the inflation of the past year. The annual rate, in turn, expresses the growth of this level in percent.
3. Inflation calculation: an example
An annual inflation calculator takes the index values of an interval and expresses the growth ratio in percent. A concrete example: the September 2025 index was 4,632.89, while September 2026 was 5,901.26. The growth between these values equals the 27.38% annual rate. Such a calculation can be done with the inflation calculator interface by entering these index values. The tool is useful for households and analysts who want to understand how the prices they face have changed over a year.
4. Exchange rate
Consumer prices are also affected by exchange rate movements. As an import-dependent economy, a weaker currency raises import costs and adds to inflation. The US dollar (USD/TRY) stood at USD 49.70 as of October 30, 2026. This makes the rate an important factor shaping price expectations. This pattern softens the exchange-rate pass-through into prices; the disinflation trend of the past months is expected to continue.
5. Interest rate environment
Monetary policy is a key tool for containing inflation. High interest rates raise the cost of credit and deter speculative borrowing. The effect of the tight monetary stance can be seen in the interest rate data. The overnight reference rate (BIST TLREF) was recorded at 35.86% as of October 30, 2026. Interest rates directly affect the cost of credit and investment decisions. A high-rate environment is a policy tool aimed at cooling demand; the disinflation in 2026 is largely attributed to this stance.
6. Outlook for the end of 2026
Global institutions, including the Bank for International Settlements, revised the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 28%. The forecast sits slightly above the September reading. Earlier projections for 2027 and 2028 point to a gradual return to the medium-term target. The upward revision reflects the role of geopolitical risks and energy prices in the inflation process. The outlook for the medium term is more favorable.
7. Summary
The September 2026 report supports a continued disinflation. The annual rate fell 1.55 percentage points from the May peak; the exchange rate and the interest rate environment are key factors shaping the economy's trajectory. The inflation calculator shows how such data can be used in everyday calculations. The article focuses on official data; market expectations are discussed only qualitatively.
Sources
- Turkey Statistical Institute (TÜİK) – Consumer Price Index (TP.TUFE1YI.T1), EVDS: https://hesapyap.net/en/evds?series=TP.TUFE1YI.T1
- Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) – announcements: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
- Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – Fatih Karahan, Inflation Report 2025-III speech: https://www.bis.org/speeches/20260901-recent-economic-and-financial-developments-turkey
- Foreks – live market data: https://www.foreks.com.tr
This article is for information only and is not investment advice. It was prepared with AI assistance and checked automatically. Figures belong to the sources and dates cited.
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